Парадокс Монти Холла — одна из известных задач репетиторов по английскому языку и преподавателей теории вероятностей,
решение которой, на первый взгляд, противоречит здравому смыслу.Текст, по которому нужно выполнить задания А14-А20, обводя цифру 1, 2, 3 или 4, соответствующую номеру выбранного варианта ответа.
Разрушители легенд: парадокс монти холла.
Нескучный ТеорВер В ответ на Парадокс Монти Холла!
Теорема умножения вероятностей.
Парадокс чаинок Эйнштейна. Einstein's tea leaf paradox Nächstes Video.
Парадоксы нашего мира | Парадокс Монти Холла.Представьте, что вы стали участником игры, в которой вам нужно выбрать одну из трех дверей.
Это — задача теории вероятности, решение которой, на первый взгляд, противоречит здравому смыслу.
'Congratulations, Angela! You have won the car, you have won the holiday for two in the Caribbean, and now you are through to the final for a chance to win one million pounds!'
Angela was sure that even the screaming and clapping of the audience wouldn't be able to drown out the sound of her beating heart. She could not believe it - the first time she had ever taken part in a game show and here she was in a potentially life-changing situation.
'Stay calm,' she said to herself.
'Don't lose control.'
'Okay, Angela,' said Bob, the presenter.
'Now, skill has got you so far but, as you know, there is always an element of chance in the final and this week is no exception.'
She'd never missed an episode and knew what every round entailed.
'So let us have a look at how you could win one million pounds!'
A brightly-coloured board descended from the ceiling of the studio.
On the board there were three large doors.
'Angela, there is one million pounds behind one of these doors.
Pick the right one, and you are going home today a millionaire.
Pick the wrong one and you are going home with nothing.
'The audience did not hesitate to complete Bob's catchphrase (броская фраза, обыкновенно используемая как демагогический лозунг или реклама) for him: '... just your bus fare!'
Even Angela mouthed it, she knew it well.
'That is right! And we do not want that, do we? So pick a door, Angela, and may luck be with you!'
Angela thought carefully before answering.
'The middle door please, Bob,' she said finally.
'The middle door!' repeated Bob.
'Okay! But before we have a look, I am going to open a door that you were wise not to choose.
He opened the door on the far left, revealing a picture of a bus ticket.
The audience cheered. Angela's heart started beating faster.
'Now, Angela,' said Bob. 'We are going to be nice to you.
You have got another choice to make.
You can either stick with your original choice - the middle door - or you can change your decision and opt for the door on the right-hand side. What is it to be?'
As a mathematician, Angela had come across the very same problem at university.
Now, here she was, facing it in real life.
She could not believe her luck.
She knew what not many people know, a fact that seemed to contradict all reason and common sense.
She did the maths in her head one more time just to make sure she was not mistaken.
She was not. When she had picked the first door, she had a one in three chance of being right.
Looking at it the other way round, she had a two in three chance of being wrong.
Those were not good odds.
But one of the wrong doors had now been eliminated, so if she changed her choice to the other possibility,
she would double her chances of being right, of winning the million.
It seemed impossible, but she knew it was true.
'What are you going to do Angela?
Stick with your original choice or switch to the other door?'
'Bob, I would like to switch, please,'
'Angela is going to switch! Let us get this right, Angela.
You now believe - you now hope – the million pounds is behind the right-hand door. Is that correct?'
"The right-hand door, yes,' said Angela weakly.
'Not the middle door?'
'No, not the middle door.'
'What are you going to do if it is actually behind the middle door?' asked Bob.
'Cry, probably!' said Angela.
The audience laughed, 'I am going to open the door you chose, Angela - the right-hand door.
Let us hope there is not a bus ticket behind it. Here we go!'
Time seemed to stand still as Bob outstretched his arm and began to open the door.
Angela had never known a feeling like this.
Surrounded by so many people, she felt like the only person in the universe.
Here was the moment of truth, and she was not sure she could face the consequences, whatever they were.
Парадокс Монти Холла — одна из известных задач теории вероятностей, решение которой, на первый взгляд, противоречит здравому смыслу. Задача репетиторами по теории вероятности и статистике формулируется как описание игры, основанной на американском телешоу «Let’s Make a Deal». Парадокс Монти Холла. Логические задачи, Математические задачи, Сложные, «Физикам», «Лирикам».
Парадокс Монти Холла и Единое национальное тестирование — Википедия репетиторства